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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model