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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 16 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to GB 13 for 12 yards (38-T.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.66 EP