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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 24 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to CAR 8, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP