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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Thursday 2019-10-31 · 20:20 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -10.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SF
64.3%
ARI
35.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: -0.313 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.143 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SF 27
–
ARI 21
Projected margin: SF by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

SF

Kyle Juszczyk RB Out Knee
Mike McGlinchey T Out Knee
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Foot
Joe Staley T Doubtful Fibula
Matt Breida RB Questionable Ankle
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee
Levine Toilolo TE Questionable Groin

ARI

Zach Allen DE Out Neck
Chase Edmonds RB Out Hamstring
David Johnson RB Questionable Ankle
Justin Murray T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 28
–
ARI 25

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:17 TD ARI (12:17) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 00:13 TD SF (:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ARI 7
  • Q2 09:05 TD SF (9:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – ARI 7
  • Q2 00:04 TD SF (:04) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 17-E.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – ARI 7
  • Q3 09:07 TD ARI (9:07) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 19-K.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 21 – ARI 13
  • Q3 06:02 TD SF (6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 18-D.Pettis for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – ARI 14
  • Q4 09:28 FG ARI (9:28) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. SF 28 – ARI 17
  • Q4 05:09 TD ARI (5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 89-A.Isabella for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 28 – ARI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (9:55) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to ARI 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-P.Cooper ran ob at ARI 32 for 9 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 20 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21%

    (7:16) 4-A.Lee punts 24 yards to SF 33, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (5:46) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to ARI 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 9 for -1 yards (31-R.Mostert; 33-T.Moore).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:39) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to SF 32, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. ran ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (16-T.Sherfield).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:06) 4-A.Lee punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (:04) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 17-E.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to ARI 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at SF 44 for 38 yards (29-J.Tartt). PENALTY on ARI-42-D.Gardeck, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:40) 4-A.Lee punts 59 yards to SF 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 29 for 10 yards (42-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on ARI-46-A.Brewer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 29.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%

    (1:08) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to ARI 7, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (9:28) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (5:36) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.