4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to ARI 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-P.Cooper ran ob at ARI 32 for 9 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model