Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(4:39) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to SF 32, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. ran ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (16-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.00 EP
55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model