Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 4-A.Lee punts 59 yards to SF 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 29 for 10 yards (42-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on ARI-46-A.Brewer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model