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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 17-E.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model