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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 16:05 Ring Central Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

DET
52.6%
OAK
47.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.193 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.149 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.116 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 27
–
OAK 24
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DET

Tracy Walker S Out Knee
Mike Daniels DT Doubtful Foot
Graham Glasgow G Questionable Back
Darius Slay CB Questionable Hamstring
Tra Carson RB Questionable Hamstring
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Groin
Amani Oruwariye CB Questionable Knee
A'Shawn Robinson DT Questionable Knee

OAK

Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Foot
Josh Mauro DE Questionable Groin
P.J. Hall DT Questionable Shoulder
Erik Harris S Questionable Illness
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Ankle
Andre James T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 24
–
OAK 31

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:36 TD LV (6:36) 28-J.Jacobs left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 02:38 TD DET (2:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 11-M.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – OAK 7
  • Q2 13:34 FG LV (13:34) 8-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. DET 7 – OAK 10
  • Q2 11:30 TD DET (11:30) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – OAK 10
  • Q2 01:16 TD LV (1:16) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 14 – OAK 16
  • Q3 04:47 FG DET (4:47) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 17 – OAK 17
  • Q4 14:56 TD LV (14:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – OAK 23
  • Q4 05:22 TD DET (5:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 41-J.McKissic for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – OAK 24
  • Q4 02:10 TD LV (2:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – OAK 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 11-M.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (13:34) 8-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 65%

    (8:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:00) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-D.Leavitt. 85-D.Carrier left end pushed ob at DET 35 for 27 yards (39-J.Agnew).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 82%

    (10:55) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (4:47) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%

    (11:42) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:22) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to DET 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-22-K.Nixon.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (9:21) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to LV 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Davis to LV 27 for 16 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin; 54-S.Longa).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:46) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to DET 22, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. PENALTY on LV-22-K.Nixon, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DET 22.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (:08) 65-T.Crosby reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Thomas (42-K.Joseph).