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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP