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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 35

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.03 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model