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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 58

Detroit Lions 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to LV 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Davis to LV 27 for 16 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin; 54-S.Longa).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.14 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 58, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP