4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(13:00) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-D.Leavitt. 85-D.Carrier left end pushed ob at DET 35 for 27 yards (39-J.Agnew).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model