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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Monday 2019-11-04 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DAL
74.0%
NYG
26.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.134 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.210 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DAL on 7 more days rest than NYG
  • NYG defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 27
–
NYG 18
Projected margin: DAL by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DAL

Cameron Fleming T Out Calf
Anthony Brown CB Questionable Hamstring
Leighton Vander Esch LB Questionable Neck

NYG

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 37
–
NYG 18

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:25 FG NYG (13:25) 2-A.Rosas 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DAL 0 – NYG 3
  • Q1 08:23 FG DAL (8:23) 2-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – NYG 3
  • Q2 12:00 TD NYG (12:00) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 12-C.Latimer for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – NYG 9
  • Q2 02:53 FG NYG (2:53) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DAL 3 – NYG 12
  • Q2 01:05 TD DAL (1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Jarwin for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – NYG 12
  • Q2 00:03 FG DAL (:03) 2-B.Maher 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 13 – NYG 12
  • Q3 04:46 FG DAL (4:46) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 16 – NYG 12
  • Q3 00:30 FG NYG (:30) 2-A.Rosas 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DAL 16 – NYG 15
  • Q4 12:47 TD DAL (12:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 22 – NYG 15
  • Q4 11:53 FG NYG (11:53) 2-A.Rosas 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PENALTY on DAL-90-D.Lawrence, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 23 – NYG 18
  • Q4 08:05 TD DAL (8:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 29 – NYG 18
  • Q4 00:22 TD DAL (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at DAL 32 for -8 yards (92-D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (92-D.Armstrong), touched at DAL 36, RECOVERED by DAL-27-J.Lewis at DAL 37. 27-J.Lewis for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Officially, a sack for 12 yards. DAL 36 – NYG 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (13:25) 2-A.Rosas 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 15 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (8:23) 2-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to DAL 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 26 for 9 yards (48-J.Tauaefa).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 13 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (2:14) 2-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (2:53) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 65%

    (:03) 2-B.Maher 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 31%

    (11:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to DAL 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie. PENALTY on NYG-39-E.Penny, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 11.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (8:39) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to NYG 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 15-G.Tate to NYG 35 for 15 yards (23-D.Thompson; 57-L.Gifford).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (4:46) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (:30) 2-A.Rosas 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (11:53) 2-A.Rosas 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PENALTY on DAL-90-D.Lawrence, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DAL 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at NYG 48 for 15 yards (9-R.Dixon).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 27%

    (4:25) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to NYG 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (:47) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 15-G.Tate to DAL 24 for 12 yards (54-J.Smith; 27-J.Lewis).