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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 36

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 2-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model