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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 11

New York Giants 15 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 2-A.Rosas 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PENALTY on DAL-90-D.Lawrence, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model