Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 85

New York Giants 18 – Dallas Cowboys 30

(5:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DAL 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at NYG 48 for 15 yards (9-R.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.11 EP
72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 85, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model