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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 17

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 2-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 17, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model