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New York Giants

2-6 HC Pat Shurmur
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Detroit Lions

3-3-1 HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 13:00 ET Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

NYG
34.1%
DET
65.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.170 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET defense: +0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19 12–26
–
DET 26 19–33
Projected margin: DET by 7 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYG

Corey Ballentine CB Out Concussion
Sterling Shepard WR Out Concussion

DET

Darius Slay CB Out Hamstring
Mike Daniels DT Out Foot
Amani Oruwariye CB Out Knee
Nick Bawden RB Questionable Foot
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 26
–
DET 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:20 TD DET (7:20) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 19 for -10 yards (40-J.Davis). FUMBLES (40-J.Davis) [40-J.Davis], RECOVERED by DET-42-D.Kennard at NYG 13. 42-D.Kennard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 02:39 TD DET (2:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-M.Hall for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DET 13
  • Q2 12:34 TD NYG (12:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – DET 14
  • Q2 04:45 TD NYG (4:45) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DET 14
  • Q2 00:25 FG DET (:25) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. NYG 13 – DET 17
  • Q3 09:56 TD DET (9:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DET 23
  • Q3 04:59 TD NYG (4:59) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-21-T.Walker was injured during the play. He is Out. NYG 19 – DET 24
  • Q4 12:21 TD DET (12:21) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – DET 30
  • Q4 01:23 TD NYG (1:23) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 25 – DET 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to DET 13, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DET 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 12 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 69%

    (8:14) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 71%

    (:25) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:16) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to NYG 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 26%

    (14:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to DET 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-D.Amendola to DET 20 for 4 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 60%

    (6:30) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 15-G.Tate (27-J.Coleman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (3:31) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Slayton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 93 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:32) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NYG 48, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-J.Peppers to 50 for 2 yards (49-C.Moore).

    See the full breakdown →