Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYG offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.170 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- NYG defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- DET offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- DET defense: +0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
NYG
DET
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:20 TD DET (7:20) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 19 for -10 yards (40-J.Davis). FUMBLES (40-J.Davis) [40-J.Davis], RECOVERED by DET-42-D.Kennard at NYG 13. 42-D.Kennard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DET 6
- Q1 02:39 TD DET (2:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-M.Hall for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DET 13
- Q2 12:34 TD NYG (12:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – DET 14
- Q2 04:45 TD NYG (4:45) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DET 14
- Q2 00:25 FG DET (:25) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. NYG 13 – DET 17
- Q3 09:56 TD DET (9:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DET 23
- Q3 04:59 TD NYG (4:59) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-21-T.Walker was injured during the play. He is Out. NYG 19 – DET 24
- Q4 12:21 TD DET (12:21) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – DET 30
- Q4 01:23 TD NYG (1:23) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 25 – DET 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 59%
(12:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to DET 13, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EPp(convert) 71%
(5:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DET 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
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Q2 DET 4th & 12 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 69%
(8:14) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 71%
(:25) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(3:16) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to NYG 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 26%
(14:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to DET 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-D.Amendola to DET 20 for 4 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 60%
(6:30) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 15-G.Tate (27-J.Coleman).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 14 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Slayton.
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Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 93 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(2:32) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NYG 48, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-J.Peppers to 50 for 2 yards (49-C.Moore).