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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 14

New York Giants 19 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Slayton.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.90 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP