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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 35

Detroit Lions 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model