Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 93

Detroit Lions 31 – New York Giants 19

(2:32) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NYG 48, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-J.Peppers to 50 for 2 yards (49-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -3.53 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.39 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 93, worth -5.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model