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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 39

New York Giants 19 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 15-G.Tate (27-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model