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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 16:05 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

LAC
49.6%
TEN
50.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN): -0.179 EPA/dropback in prior starts (TEN starting Ryan Tannehill in place of Marcus Mariota)
  • TEN offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.009 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 22
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

LAC

Nasir Adderley S Out Hamstring
Justin Jackson RB Out Calf
Justin Jones DT Out Shoulder
Brandon Mebane DT Out Knee
Melvin Ingram DE Doubtful Hamstring
Michael Badgley K Questionable right Groin

TEN

Sharif Finch LB Out Shoulder
Chris Milton CB Out Calf
Jayon Brown LB Doubtful Groin
Delanie Walker TE Questionable Ankle
Reggie Gilbert DE Questionable Knee
Cameron Wake LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 20
–
TEN 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:06 FG TEN (6:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. LAC 0 – TEN 3
  • Q1 00:07 FG LAC (:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 3 – TEN 3
  • Q2 03:43 TD LAC (3:43) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 25-M.Gordon for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:27 TD TEN (:27) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 84-C.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC-52-D.Perryman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LAC 10 – TEN 9
  • Q4 13:16 TD TEN (13:16) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 10 – TEN 16
  • Q4 10:59 FG LAC (10:59) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 13 – TEN 16
  • Q4 06:45 TD TEN (6:45) 22-D.Henry left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – TEN 22
  • Q4 05:16 TD LAC (5:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 30-A.Ekeler for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – TEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 76%

    (11:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 86-H.Henry (31-K.Byard).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 48%

    (8:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern pass short left to 31-K.Byard to LAC 32 for 11 yards (57-J.Brown).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 83%

    (6:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%

    (11:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to LAC 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:27) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:44) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to TEN 35, Center-45-C.Mazza. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 49 for 14 yards (11-G.Davis).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 31%

    (5:32) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 35 yards to TEN 15, Center-45-C.Mazza, downed by LAC-35-T.Pope.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

    (10:59) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 33%

    (2:39) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle to LAC 49 for no gain (97-J.Bosa).