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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern pass short left to 31-K.Byard to LAC 32 for 11 yards (57-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.94 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model