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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:32) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 35 yards to TEN 15, Center-45-C.Mazza, downed by LAC-35-T.Pope.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model