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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 93

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to TEN 35, Center-45-C.Mazza. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 49 for 14 yards (11-G.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model