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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to LAC 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP