Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Devlin Hodges (PIT): -0.148 EPA/dropback in prior starts (PIT starting Devlin Hodges in place of Mason Rudolph)
- PIT offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.092 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
PIT
LAC
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:01 TD PIT (11:01) (Pass formation) 17-P.Rivers FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 13, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at LAC 9. 55-D.Bush for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – LAC 0
- Q1 04:35 TD PIT (4:35) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – LAC 0
- Q2 06:42 TD PIT (6:42) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short right to 30-J.Conner for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – LAC 0
- Q3 08:15 FG PIT (8:15) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 24 – LAC 0
- Q4 14:04 FG LAC (14:04) 3-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. PIT 24 – LAC 3
- Q4 07:19 TD LAC (7:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 24 – LAC 9
- Q4 01:34 TD LAC (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 24 – LAC 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:58) 1-T.Long punts 43 yards to PIT 12, Center-45-C.Mazza. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 21 for 9 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(11:12) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to LAC 21, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 20-D.King.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 12 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(:52) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to PIT 14, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%
(:37) 3-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%
(8:15) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 60%
(6:49) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to PIT 21, Center-45-C.Mazza. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 5 yards (28-B.Facyson).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EPp(convert) 70%
(3:10) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to LAC 9, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 20-D.King.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%
(14:04) 3-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:07) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to LAC 14, Center-57-K.Canaday. 20-D.King to LAC 21 for 7 yards (80-J.Holton; 56-A.Chickillo).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 36 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 61%
(1:11) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to LAC 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-80-J.Holton.