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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +3.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP