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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to LAC 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-80-J.Holton.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +0.89 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EP