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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to PIT 21, Center-45-C.Mazza. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 5 yards (28-B.Facyson).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP