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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 16:25 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

HOU
44.9%
LAC
55.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.154 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 25
–
LAC 26
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

HOU

Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Senio Kelemete G Questionable Wrist
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Ankle

LAC

Hunter Henry TE Out Knee
Michael Davis CB Doubtful Hamstring
Michael Badgley K Questionable right Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 27
–
LAC 20

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:47 TD LAC (9:47) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 10:36 FG LAC (10:36) 1-T.Long 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor. HOU 0 – LAC 10
  • Q2 08:18 TD HOU (8:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson Aborted. 66-N.Martin FUMBLES at LAC 21, recovered by HOU-4-D.Watson at LAC 21. 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 87-D.Fells for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:29 TD LAC (:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – LAC 16
  • Q3 07:36 TD HOU (7:36) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – LAC 17
  • Q3 01:25 TD HOU (1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 88-J.Akins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – LAC 17
  • Q4 09:53 TD HOU (9:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 27 – LAC 17
  • Q4 07:19 FG LAC (7:19) 1-T.Long 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor. HOU 27 – LAC 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:57) 1-T.Long punts 56 yards to HOU 15, Center-45-C.Mazza. 14-D.Carter to HOU 26 for 11 yards (98-I.Rochell; 48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 38%

    (4:23) 9-B.Anger punts 33 yards to LAC 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (10:36) 1-T.Long 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 27%

    (5:13) 1-T.Long punts 45 yards to HOU 6, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:49) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:05) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to LAC 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 20-D.King to LAC 26 for no gain (37-J.Addae).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 18 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:23) 1-T.Long punts 60 yards to HOU 22, Center-45-C.Mazza. 14-D.Carter to HOU 45 for 23 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%

    (13:37) 1-T.Long punts 32 yards to HOU 18, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 85%

    (7:19) 1-T.Long 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:30) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 20-D.King to LAC 16 for -1 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to HOU 42 for 15 yards (32-L.Johnson) [99-J.Watt].

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 69%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to HOU 30 for 4 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-20-J.Reid was injured during the play.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.65 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 69%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 15-D.Inman. PENALTY on HOU-37-J.Addae, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.