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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 1-T.Long 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.38 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP