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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 57

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.20 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP