Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 0

(12:57) 1-T.Long punts 56 yards to HOU 15, Center-45-C.Mazza. 14-D.Carter to HOU 26 for 11 yards (98-I.Rochell; 48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model