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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 15-D.Inman. PENALTY on HOU-37-J.Addae, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.66 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.65 EP