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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

NO
46.1%
LA
53.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.180 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
LA 25
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NO

Sheldon Rankins DT Out Achilles

LA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 9
–
LA 27

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:46 FG LA (8:46) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. NO 0 – LA 3
  • Q2 11:10 FG NO (11:10) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – LA 3
  • Q2 00:07 FG LA (:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. NO 3 – LA 6
  • Q3 09:59 FG NO (9:59) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 6 – LA 6
  • Q3 05:43 TD LA (5:43) 30-T.Gurley left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – LA 12
  • Q3 01:03 TD LA (1:03) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 12-B.Cooks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – LA 19
  • Q4 11:02 FG NO (11:02) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 9 – LA 20
  • Q4 08:39 TD LA (8:39) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – LA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (8:46) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:44) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to LA 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to NO 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris ran ob at LA 41 for 19 yards (33-N.Scott).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (11:10) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 25%

    (2:47) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 48 for no gain (50-S.Ebukam, 90-M.Brockers).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (14:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to NO 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 69%

    (9:59) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 14 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%

    (11:02) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 20 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris to NO 22 for 9 yards (33-N.Scott).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LA 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.