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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 6 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model