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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 6, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP