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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to LA 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.66 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 54, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model