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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 3 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.20 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model