Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.214 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.302 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- LV offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- LV defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
OAK
KC
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:51 TD KC (12:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 6
- Q1 05:54 TD KC (5:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at KC 46. 49-D.Sorensen for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 13
- Q2 09:38 TD KC (9:38) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-10-T.Hill, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. OAK 0 – KC 20
- Q2 01:09 FG LV (1:09) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 3 – KC 21
- Q3 08:51 TD KC (8:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-11-D.Robinson, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. OAK 3 – KC 27
- Q4 13:31 TD KC (13:31) 10-T.Hill left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-25-E.Harris was injured during the play. OAK 3 – KC 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 45%
(10:04) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(5:49) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to LV 2 for -1 yards (90-J.Hankins, 78-J.Ellis).
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Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 67%
(1:09) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
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Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(:23) 5-J.Townsend punts 48 yards to KC 40, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-T.Hill to KC 43 for 3 yards (86-L.Smith). PENALTY on KC-12-G.Dieter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 43.
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Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%
(10:14) 5-J.Townsend punts 40 yards to KC 1, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-17-D.Harris.
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Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 21%
(6:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-S.Roberts to KC 47 for 3 yards (35-C.Ward).
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Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%
(4:09) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to KC 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.
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Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 41%
(10:13) 5-J.Townsend punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.
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Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 35 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 59%
(4:04) (Shotgun) 31-Dar.Williams up the middle to LV 33 for 2 yards (42-K.Joseph; 59-T.Whitehead).
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Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 29 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%
(1:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass incomplete short right to 12-G.Dieter.