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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 35

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 5-J.Townsend punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP