4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(6:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-S.Roberts to KC 47 for 3 yards (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.85 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model