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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to LV 2 for -1 yards (90-J.Hankins, 78-J.Ellis).

The Three Options

GO +4.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.65 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model