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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP