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Cleveland Browns

HC Gregg Williams
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 16:25 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CLE
49.6%
BAL
50.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): -0.058 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 22
–
BAL 23
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CLE

Denzel Ward CB Out Concussion
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle

BAL

John Brown WR Questionable Hamstring
Anthony Levine LB Questionable Toe
Alex Lewis G Questionable Shoulder
Terrell Suggs LB Questionable Hamstring
Tavon Young CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 24
–
BAL 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:31 FG BAL (9:31) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 0 – BAL 3
  • Q1 08:28 TD CLE (8:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 19-B.Perriman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – BAL 3
  • Q1 04:52 TD BAL (4:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – BAL 9
  • Q2 15:00 TD BAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Lamar Jackson's 2nd touchdown of game. CLE 7 – BAL 16
  • Q2 06:15 FG BAL (6:15) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 7 – BAL 20
  • Q3 12:35 TD CLE (12:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – BAL 20
  • Q3 07:08 FG BAL (7:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 14 – BAL 23
  • Q4 13:48 FG CLE (13:48) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 17 – BAL 23
  • Q4 07:23 FG BAL (7:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 17 – BAL 26
  • Q4 03:28 TD CLE (3:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 11-A.Callaway for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – BAL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 26%

    (11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard to 50 for 2 yards (52-R.Armstrong; 22-J.Peppers).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (9:31) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:55) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 35%

    (12:32) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (6:15) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to CLE 46, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 17 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 50%

    (:42) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CLE 06, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-49-C.Board.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:50) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-A.Callaway to BAL 48 for 37 yards (87-M.Williams).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 84%

    (7:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to BAL 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (3:04) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-A.Callaway ran ob at CLE 23 for 8 yards.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (13:48) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (7:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-A.Callaway to CLE 26 for 1 yard (41-A.Levine Sr.).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 57%

    (1:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 29-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Mosley [99-M.Judon] at BAL 39. 57-C.Mosley to BAL 39 for no gain.