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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 14 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(13:48) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.34 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model