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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CLE 06, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-49-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.97 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP